A slight increase in global petroleum prices is being anticipated amid rising geopolitical tensions following recent developments in Venezuela and renewed US sanctions.
Market analysts say uncertainty surrounding Venezuela — which holds the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves — has added pressure to energy markets. Following reports of a US-led intervention, concerns have emerged over the future of Venezuelan oil production and exports.
According to international media reports, geopolitical escalation involving Venezuela could trigger a strong reaction on Wall Street, as investors typically move toward safe-haven assets such as gold during periods of heightened uncertainty.
Although sources indicate that Venezuela’s oil production and refining infrastructure has not suffered direct physical damage, US sanctions have effectively halted the country’s oil exports since early January. As a result, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA has been forced to cut production due to limited storage capacity, leaving millions of barrels stranded in tankers and storage facilities.
Data shows that Venezuela’s oil exports dropped to around 500,000 barrels per day in December, nearly half of November’s levels. After January, only Chevron has been permitted to export a limited volume of approximately 100,000 barrels per day under special authorization.
Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) have decided to maintain current production levels during the first quarter, a move analysts say reflects caution amid ongoing geopolitical risks.
Energy experts note that while geopolitical risks linked to Venezuela and Iran could place upward pressure on oil prices, excess supply from other producers may offset the impact. According to Capital Economics, any short-term disruption in Venezuelan supply is likely to be absorbed by increased output from other regions, limiting sustained price spikes.
